I write about applications of data and analytical techniques like statistical modelling and simulation to real-world situations. I show how to access and use data, and provide examples of analytical products and the code that produced them.
http://ellisp.github.io/
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Peter's stats stuff | ellisp.github.io Reviews
https://ellisp.github.io
I write about applications of data and analytical techniques like statistical modelling and simulation to real-world situations. I show how to access and use data, and provide examples of analytical products and the code that produced them.
ellisp.github.io
Declining sea ice in the Arctic
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2016/11/24/seaice
Grouped by subject matter. Declining sea ice in the Arctic. Adding a (small amount of) polish to a well known chart of seasonal Arctic sea declining over the years. A number of data visualisations are circulating showing the disturbing rise in temperature at the North Pole and drop in coverage of Arctic sea ice. The current level of interest is credited to a tweet from Zack Labe. Which also combines the Arctic and Antarctic extent, the Washington Post. Here’s my own graph of the data:. Include each indiv...
Why time series forecasts prediction intervals aren't as good as we'd hope
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2016/12/07/arima-prediction-intervals
Grouped by subject matter. Why time series forecasts prediction intervals aren't as good as we'd hope. A quick demonstration of the impact of inevitably random estimates of the parameters and meta-parameters in ARIMA time series modelling. Five different sources of error. When it comes to time series forecasts from a statistical model we have five sources of error:. Random estimates of parameters (eg the coefficients for each autoregressive term). Unsure if the model was right for the historical data.
Blog listing grouped by tag
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/index_by_tag.html
Grouped by subject matter. Blog listing grouped by tag. Cross-validation of topic modelling. Animated world inequality map. Visual contrast of two robust regression methods. Filling in the gaps - highly granular estimates of income and population for New Zealand from survey data. Create ARIMA time series from bottom up. Linear model with time series random component. Silver flows in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. Simulating backgammon players' Elo ratings. Why you need version control. Dynamic...
Air quality in Indian cities
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2016/12/18/air-quality-india
Grouped by subject matter. Air quality in Indian cities. Air pollution in Indian cities is unambiguously seasonal, and also might have a Diwali impact. Seasonal air pollution in India. To cut to the chase, ultimately I was looking at this sort of obviously seasonal result:. Open Air Quality Data. Site and in particular the excellent. For the record, here’s the R code that downloaded that data (nearly 23,000 observations - many observations per day) and drew the graph, and also set up the session for ever...
Extrapolation is tough for trees!
http://ellisp.github.io/blog/2016/12/10/extrapolation
Grouped by subject matter. Extrapolation is tough for trees! Tree-based predictive analytics methods like random forests and extreme gradient boosting may perform poorly with data that is out of the range of the original training data. Data and set up. The data was generated by this:. Set up functionality for modelling down the track. For demo single tree. For palette of colours. Sample data - training set. Extrapolation / test set, has historical data plus some more extreme values. All these four method...
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Sunday, March 9, 2008. Bind Rune Thurisaz For Defensive Protection. THE POWERFUL BIND RUNE. RUNES are Creative Universal Energies. By combining runes you can create powerful charms that will protect you and your family in these difficult times. Each RUNE is a key to the infinite Runic energy contained in the Quantum Ocean. Each Rune Symbol has several runic energies attached to it. All are similar but there is always one rune energy that predominates. The Rune UR (URAZ) has several keywords. Therefore wh...
Peter's stats stuff
Grouped by subject matter. Applying statistics and data science 'in the wild'. I write about applications of data and analytical techniques like statistical modelling and simulation to real-world situations. I show how to access and use data, and provide examples of analytical products and the code that produced them. Latest post ». Cross-validation of topic modelling. Cross-validation of the "perplexity" from a topic model, to help determine a good number of topics. ForecastHybrid 0.3.0 on CRAN. Forecas...
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