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It's chancy. | Stochastic musings of a biostatistician.Stochastic musings of a biostatistician.
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It's chancy. | Stochastic musings of a biostatistician. | itschancy.wordpress.com Reviews
https://itschancy.wordpress.com
Stochastic musings of a biostatistician.
itschancy.wordpress.com
When does Bayesian inference shatter? | It's chancy.
https://itschancy.wordpress.com/2014/01/04/when-does-bayesian-inference-shatter
Stochastic musings of a biostatistician. January 4, 2014. When does Bayesian inference shatter? In the spring of last year, a paper with the title. Bayesian Brittleness: Why no Bayesian model is “good enough”. Was put on the arXiv. The authors (Houman Owhadi, Clint Scovel, Tim Sullivan, henceforth OSS) later posted a followup entitled. When Bayesian inference shatters. When published, this work was commented on in a number of stats blogs I follow, including Xian’s Og and. This nice nickel summary. Note t...
Laurie Davies and betting on adequacy | It's chancy.
https://itschancy.wordpress.com/2015/03/28/laurie-davies-and-betting-on-adequacy
Stochastic musings of a biostatistician. March 28, 2015. Laurie Davies and betting on adequacy. About a year and a half ago, I read P. L. Davies’s interesting paper Approximating Data. There was one passage I read that struck me as unusually wrong-headed (pg 195):. 1) distribution, as for the N. Distribution and so forth. It becomes clear that these odds are not representable by a probability distribution: only one distribution can be the ‘true’ but many can be adequate approximations. I tried to reply i...
October | 2013 | It's chancy.
https://itschancy.wordpress.com/2013/10
Stochastic musings of a biostatistician. Monthly Archives: October 2013. A foundation for Bayesian statistics, part one: Cox’s theorem. October 9, 2013. I’m frustrated with the length this post and how much time it’s taking me to finish, so I’m splitting it into two parts.). I subscribe to a school of thought some call “Jaynesian” after Edwin T. Jaynes. Its foundation is a theorem of Richard T. Cox. Laurie Davies and betting on adequacy. When does Bayesian inference shatter? A sense that more is possible.
March | 2015 | It's chancy.
https://itschancy.wordpress.com/2015/03
Stochastic musings of a biostatistician. Monthly Archives: March 2015. Laurie Davies and betting on adequacy. March 28, 2015. About a year and a half ago, I read P. L. Davies’s interesting paper Approximating Data. There was one passage I read that struck me as unusually wrong-headed (pg 195):. 1) distribution, as for the N. I always meant to write something about how this line of argument goes wrong, but it wasn’t a high priority. But recently Davies reiterated this argument in a comment. 1) also being ...
How “Severity, part one” got Mayo wrong (and a preview of “Two Severities”) | It's chancy.
https://itschancy.wordpress.com/2014/01/11/how-severity-part-one-got-mayo-wrong-and-a-preview-of-two-severities
Stochastic musings of a biostatistician. January 11, 2014. How “Severity, part one” got Mayo wrong (and a preview of “Two Severities”). In the comments to my first post on severity. Professor Mayo noted some apparent and some actual misstatements of her views.To avert misunderstandings, she. To two of her articles,. Of which opens by making this distinction:. I think I ended up making claims about severity that were wrong. I was narrowly focused on severity in sense (2) — in fact, on one specif...As a ph...
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Poker math showdown! - Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
http://andrewgelman.com/2014/08/25/poker-math-showdown
Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science. Laquo; How Many Mic’s Do We Rip. On deck this week. On 25 August 2014, 2:06 am. In comments, Rick Schoenberg wrote. I haven’t read your book, but I’d be happy to know what you think is a huge error that invalidates the whole last chapter that no one has uncovered so far. (Also, the last chapter of our book contains no calculations—perhaps you meant the chapter preceding the error? Hmmm, what’s on page 146 of Rick’s book? Actually, the first time...
When does Bayes do the job? - Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
http://andrewgelman.com/2015/08/06/when-does-bayes-do-the-job
Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science. Laquo; How Hamiltonian Monte Carlo works. The secret to making a successful conference presentation. When does Bayes do the job? On 6 August 2015, 9:57 am. I recall that you have also stressed this issue, and I’d like to acknowledge that. Do you have pointers to a few of your papers where you explicitly mention this? Ideally I would just take a quotation. Which I absolutely love. Then there’s this paper. Here’s a quote from that paper:. The next...
TL;DR | thezoepost
https://thezoepost.wordpress.com/2014/08/16/tldr-2
Primer: I DO NOT STAND BY THE CURRENT ABUSE AND HARASSMENT OF ZOE QUINN OR FRIENDS. STOP DOING THAT. IT IS NOT IN ANYONE’S BEST INTEREST. Addendum: Thanks for stopping! Yes, this thing is huge. There was a lot of stuff so it needed a lot of words. On Penny Arcade and Something Awful, because I figured it would be best to announce on friendly communities in innocuous ways. Penny Arcade and Something Awful deleted those threads, so now this blog stands alone. I will not take it down, because I know...Act 0...
Infinite Debt | Slate Star Codex
http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/10/infinite-debt
Open threads at the Open Thread tab every Sunday and Wednesday. May 10, 2014. A patient of mine is getting to that age where she can’t support herself independently. She’s not a big fan of nursing homes, and I don’t blame her. She wants her son to take care of her. And she says, come on, I worked hard to raise you, you owe me. And I wonder, how far does this go? Suppose she is going to need a decade of pretty much twenty-four hour care. She says “Well, I gave you two. And a lot of libertarians get really...
Are you ready to go fishing in the data lake? - Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
http://andrewgelman.com/2015/05/16/are-you-ready-to-go-fishing-in-the-data-lake
Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science. Laquo; Apology to George A. Romero. 8220;Do we have any recommendations for priors for student t’s degrees of freedom parameter? Are you ready to go fishing in the data lake? Posted by Aki Vehtari. On 16 May 2015, 3:41 pm. While Andrew is trying to get someone to make a t-shirt design “Gone fishing”. Filed under Miscellaneous Statistics. May 16, 2015 at 3:46 pm. Does Exploratory Fishing smell fishy? Reply to this comment. May 16, 2015 at 5:14 pm.
Fraudulent until proved innocent: Is this really the new “Bayesian Forensics”? (ii) (rejected post) | Rejected Posts of D. Mayo
https://rejectedpostsofdmayo.com/2015/06/09/fraudulent-until-proved-innocent-is-this-really-the-new-bayesian-forensics-rejected-post
Statistical Hall of Shame. Rejected Posts of D. Mayo. Rejected posts from error statistics philosophy: frequentists in exile–the blog. Fraudulent until proved innocent: Is this really the new “Bayesian Forensics”? June 9, 2015. Yes, one really does wonder! 8220;V 1. Consequently, within this framework there does not exist exculpatory evidence. This is reasonable since bad science cannot be compensated by very good science. It should be very good anyway.”. Klaassen, C. A. J. (2015). ArXiv:1405.4540v2 ...
plausibilitytheory.wordpress.com
El cebo y el anzuelo en la inferencia | Plausibility Theory
https://plausibilitytheory.wordpress.com/2015/06/15/el-cebo-y-el-anzuelo-en-la-inferencia
Inference bait and switch. Two analogies on ‘Waking Up’ →. El cebo y el anzuelo en la inferencia. June 15, 2015. Brendon J. Brewer. Esta es una traducción al español de la entrada “Inference bait and switch” que publiqué recientemente. La traducí para divertirme y practicar mi segundo idioma. Es mi primer intento de traducir algo tan complejo como esto, entonces lo siento por algún error. Muchas gracias a Patricio Maturana Russel. YO: En tu opinión, cómo se deberían usar los valores p? COLEGA: Los cientí...
plausibilitytheory.wordpress.com
The nature of probability | Plausibility Theory
https://plausibilitytheory.wordpress.com/2015/03/08/the-nature-of-probability
Publication Bias and P-Values. How many “distributions of the data” are there? The nature of probability. March 8, 2015. Brendon J. Brewer. Recently I was involved in a Twitter conversation about quantum mechanics, during which I claimed that the nature of probability has been completely solved. I was going to write a blog post about quantum theory, but my thoughts on it aren’t mature enough so I decided to focus on the completely solved nature of probability. The first main application of probability to...
Bad Math from the Bad Astronomer | Good Math Bad Math
http://goodmath.scientopia.org/2014/01/17/bad-math-from-the-bad-astronomer
Just another Scientopia site. Bad Math from the Bad Astronomer. Jan 17 2014 Published by MarkCC. This morning, my friend Dr24Hours pinged me on twitter about some bad math:. Sum(NatNums)= -1/12 bullshit) h/t @NeuroPolarbear@BadAstronomer Shame on you, @Slate. Mdash; Dr24hours (@Dr24hours) January 17, 2014. And indeed, he was right. Phil Plait the Bad Astronomer, of all people, got taken in by a bit of mathematical stupidity, which he credulously swallowed and chose to stupidly expand on. Now, consider S.
Stein’s Method « Normal Deviate
https://normaldeviate.wordpress.com/2013/11/16/steins-method
Thoughts on Statistics and Machine Learning. Nonparametric Regression, ABC and CNN. THE END ». I have mentioned Stein’s method. In passing, a few times on this blog. Today I want to talk about Stein’s method in a bit of detail. 1 What Is Stein’s Method? Stein’s method, due to Charles Stein, is actually quite old, going back to 1972. But there has been a great deal of interest in the method lately. As in many things, Stein was ahead of his time. Of some random variable. We want to bound. If and only if.
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Learn How to Manage Your Gambling Money and Win | It’s Chance |
Money Tips for Casino Goers. Money is the name of the game. Gambling might be one of the easiest ways to. No one goes to the casino wanting to lose money. I don’t know anyone. In the heat of the moment, most people don’t think about what they’ll do with. Manage Your Gambling Money Smartly. Analyzing Your Budget To Avoid Bankruptcy. Posted by Hubert Johnson. On Jun 27, 2014. Tips To Help You Survive A Bankruptcy. Posted by Hubert Johnson. On Jun 6, 2014. Tips For Paying Off Student Loans. On Jun 5, 2014.
It's chancy. | Stochastic musings of a biostatistician.
Stochastic musings of a biostatistician. In which I establish my Bayesian. Mayo’s error statistics and the Severity Principle. In which I give my current understanding of error statistics. Also, first howler! Howler, howler, howler. In which I show how the severity concept defeats many “howlers”:. Common criticisms of frequentist approaches propagated in Bayesian articles and textbooks. Probably more than one post. Exact same information, must disagree. Laurie Davies and betting on adequacy. There was on...
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Through My Eyes
Monday, December 19, 2011. Avah turned seven last Monday. SEVEN. That seems so very old. I had a whole post written out about it but then blogger decided pictures were lame and wouldn't upload them. That is definitely a post that is deserving of pictures, so I will wait until blogger lets me upload them. Its hard watching your children grow up, but in moments like those, its so amazingly rewarding. Links to this post. Wednesday, November 16, 2011. I'm gonna get you! Links to this post. Hes very offended ...
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